Mass Exodus? Probably Not.
With Trump back in office, some Americans are likely eyeing British Columbia as their new home, and Vancouver’s housing market could feel the impact. With British Columbia already welcoming 60,000-70,000 immigrants in 2022 and 2023 - many choosing the Lower Mainland as a final destination - housing is already in short supply and prices are sky-high; a modest influx of Americans could put extra pressure on both rentals and real estate. So what happens if more Americans start looking to settle here? And how realistic are these scenarios? From bidding wars and rental hikes to possible expansions into surrounding suburbs, let us consider how a potential wave of U.S. immigrants could shake things up for the North Shore, Greater Vancouver and the Lower Mainland’s housing market.
Historical Figures
The number of Americans immigrating to Canada during Trump's first term (2017-2021) showed a noticeable increase compare to previous presidential terms - although all of these statistics were prior to the "foreign buyer ban".
George W. Bush (2001-2009): Approximately 55,000 Americans moved to Canada during Bush's two terms [approx 6,900 per year]*
Barack Obama (2009-2017): Approximately 60,000 Americans moved to Canada during Obama's two terms [approx 7,500 per year]*
Donald Trump (2017-2021): Approximately 47,000 Americans moved to Canada during Trump's first term in office, despite the ongoing pandemic [approx 11,750 per year]*
*source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) & Statistics Canada
Increased Competition for Housing
Greater Vancouver already has some of the highest real estate prices in Canada, and with demand consistently outstripping supply, an influx of new residents - especially those with a strong U.S. dollar - could drive prices up even further. The strength of the greenback (view the current CAD/USD ForEx rate here >>) provides additional leverage and purchasing power, where US funds could outcompete local buyers. As a result, increased demand in Vancouver proper would potentially result in a trickle down effect and a shift to the suburbs, as local buyers look for more affordable options.
Now, there are some limitations given the Federal Prohibtion on Foreign Buyers, and as a result, any potential impacts from the election results would likely be muted in the short-term. Dual citizens, temporary residents on work permits that meet certain prescribed criteria, and foreign students with an extended history of residing in Canada may be exempt; family sponsorship, express entry, or provincial nominee programs could also provide an expedited path for some - but far from all.
Impacts on the Rental Market
With the Foreign Buyer Ban extended until January 1, 2027, the rental market will likely be the primary option for a large percentage of Americans choosing to move north. With Vancouver's rental market already under extreme pressrure, with vacancy rates hovering around 1%, an increased level of scarcity could lead to higher rents and fierce competition for units.
For local renters, this could make finding affordable housing even more challening, especially in those communities that are well-connected and in high demand.
The reality...
Immigration has and will continue to impact our local real estate market, in both positive and negative ways - regardless of the politilcal landscape south of the border. After U.S. elections, especially with a polarizing Trump in the spotlight, there’s often a lot of buzz about Americans moving to Canada. You’ll see a big jump in people Googling "how to move to Canada" or reaching out to immigration lawyers. But while the interest peaks right after a controversial election, not many actually make the move. Canada’s immigration process is tough, with strict rules to meet. Still, things like politics, quality of life, healthcare, and stability could make younger, more progressive Americans seriously consider Canada. Of course, factors like the economy, cost of living, and Canada’s own immigration policies will play a big role in whether this interest turns into real moves. In the next few months, we might start seeing signs of this shift through changes in immigration applications, but in reality the resulting impacts will likely not be as significant as the many other forces at play within our strained and complex housing market.
